CLIMATE: Prominent EPA skeptic prepares to vote against anti-agency measure (04/06/2011)

Jean Chemnick, E&E reporter

His efforts to delay implementation of U.S. EPA's climate change rules may not have endeared Sen. Jay Rockefeller to environmentalists. But the West Virginia Democrat is the only member of his state's congressional delegation who is set to vote against permanently scrapping EPA's power to limit carbon.

Both the Senate and House are likely to hold votes today on legislation to bar EPA from implementing rules related to carbon dioxide, and West Virginia's junior senator and three House members have all co-sponsored those bills.

The Senate will vote on an amendment to an unrelated bill, offered by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) from language authored by Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.). Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is the only Senate Democrat to co-sponsor the Inhofe bill (S. 482), though he has said he plans to also support Rockefeller's alternative measure (S. 231) to halt implementation of rules for power plants and other stationary sources for two years.
"I'm going to continue to keep voting until we get these regulatory agencies in the proper place they're supposed to be, which is basically working with the legislature, which passes public policy," Manchin said last week. "Not them making public policy."

But Rockefeller has said he will not support the Inhofe bill -- in part because he does not believe it can become law, but also because he opposes the policy.

In a floor speech last week, Rockefeller acknowledged that EPA is "is the object of much scorn" in West Virginia, where the coal industry plays a leading role in both the state's heritage and its economy -- providing 58,820 jobs directly and indirectly last year.
The agency is resented in the Mountain State not only for proposing to regulate carbon dioxide but for a range of other permitting rules and regulations related to both mining and coal-fired electric generation.

Still, Rockefeller said that taking EPA regulation of carbon off the table permanently would hurt the coal industry in the long run by removing an immediate incentive to invest aggressively in carbon-reduction technologies.
"We know that if coal is frozen in time the way Senators McConnell and Inhofe are proposing, it will be rapidly eclipsed by other energy sources," he said. "Oh yes, most especially natural gas."

Rockefeller said that without the certainty that carbon will be regulated in the future, coal-fired power plants might not make upgrade and investment decisions that would prepare them for a future that very likely will include a price on carbon -- like investment in carbon capture and sequestration technologies.

"Electric utilities are right now making, as I've indicated, investment decisions based on that uncertainty," he said. "It's a bad place from which to make a decision, and with very few exceptions, logically, that means they are not building or rebuilding coal-power plants. Natural gas will overtake."

Rockefeller's aversion to a permanent ban on EPA climate change rules puts him at odds not only with his West Virginia colleagues but also with many in the coal industry. But it is unclear whether that parting of ways will have any political implications for the senior senator, who will not be running for re-election until 2014, when he will be 77 years old.
Mark Blankenship, a West Virginia pollster with clients in the coal industry, said the defeat last year of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) demonstrates that West Virginia voters have very little tolerance for equivocation when it comes to EPA climate regulations, even from their most senior representatives. Mollohan voted against a comprehensive climate change bill that passed the House in 2009, but he did not come out as strongly against it as some of his home-state colleagues.

Blankenship also noted that President Obama's approval ratings in West Virginia are lower than the national average, in part because he is perceived as an aggressive regulator.
"Rockefeller has got to balance his allegiance to the Obama administration with popular opinion in West Virginia," he said.

"The politically popular choice is to go with the McConnell amendment," he added.
But Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), who is a co-sponsor of the House version of the permanent EPA bill, said Rockefeller runs little political risk by voting against it.
"It won't hurt him," Rahall said. "The senator's looking at it from the perspective of what can pass and what can become law."

Rahall acknowledged that the permanent pre-emption bill does not have great prospects of becoming law but said he thought it was worth supporting anyway."I'd like to see something get to conference," Rahall said. "[Rockefeller's] two-year bill just might be the end result here if we can't get a permanent moratorium 'cause obviously the president would not sign it. Then let's get a bill to conference."

Coal industry representatives said they supported permanent pre-emption of EPA rules because only that would offer coal-fired electric generation long-term certainty.
"We have differences of opinion with the senator over the utility of temporary suspension of EPA greenhouse gas authority versus a permanent annulment of that authority," said Luke Popovich, chief spokesman for the National Mining Association. "He obviously believes that the former is the wiser course. We tend to view a permanent ban as being the real elixir here because it would remove any uncertainty in the marketplace."

Energy and Politics

Voters are deeply concerned about the economy. The components of the economy which concern them most are jobs followed (not necessarily in order) by government spending and national debt issues. This is the prism through which voters are viewing all other issues - including energy and the environment. On our website you can find a recent article from E&E summarizing a national survey we conducted for the Institute of Energy Research on a host of energy and other topics (http://www.markblankenship.com/). This is not to imply other issues are not important. Taxes, global warming, terrorism, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, are all important issues to varying degrees. But when you really want to understand what issues are driving voter opinion, look no further than the economy and its various elements.

How will a particular issue impact my job? Will supporting/opposing this issue increase the costs I have to pay for a particular good or service? Does this add to the national debt? By voting for X, will it help bring stability to the economy? These are the most likely kinds of questions voters will begin asking themselves with greater frequency between now and November. Voters want affordable energy. They want efficient and reliable energy and they REALLY want the high paying jobs with benefits the energy industry offers across many parts of the country. It seems now is an inopportune time time to try and sell voters any energy initiatives with large price tags. For example, its not that alternative energy isn't important, its that right now, alternative energy designed to combat global warming is less important than other elements of the energy debate. One voter recently told me during a focus group in Los Angeles "there is only so much I can afford, literally and figuratively, to be concerned about."

The candidates, grass roots movements and issue organizations that make the best case to voters about reliability, affordability and stability are likely the ones who will be most successful come November. Of course this seems simple, and it really is. However, there are many who participate in the public debate who ignore these very kinds of voter dynamics.

Judicial Reform and Public Opinion in West Virginia

In West Virginia, Governor Manchin announced former United States Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor will serve as honorary chairwoman of the governor's special commission on the state court system. The commission will examine issues ranging from the partisan election of judges to the creation of a intermediate appellate court. The commission is to provide Governor Manchin with its report in November of this year.

Mark Blankenship Enterprises (MBE) has conducted a number of public opinion surveys in West Virginia on this topic during the last year. Revisiting some of this data helps illuminate how voters perceive some of the very issues which the governor's commission is to examine.

In September of 2008 MBE conducted a random sample survey of 600 registered West Virginia voters (yielding a maximum sample variation of +/- 4% at a 95% confidence level). Sixty percent (60%) disagree electing "supreme court justices by partisan election in which judges are nominated by their political parties such as republican or democrat ... creates a fair court system."

Survey respondents were also read (by live telephone interviewers) a list of three possible ways judges in West Virginia could be selected and asked which they prefer as the best method. The possibilities included "partisan election of judges in which judges are nominated by their political parties such as republican or democrat" which 19% of voters preferred; "nonpartisan election of judges in which the candidate’s political party is unknown" preferred by 36% of voters; and "merit selection of judges in which the governor appoints and legislature approves judges based on the judge’s experience and qualifications" preferred by 37%. Another 8% didn't know which method they prefer.

Two-thirds (73%) of West Virginia voters prefer a judicial selection method other than the current partisan election method. This certainly suggests there is public support for examination and reform such as the commission put forth by the governor. Because a majority or strong plurality doesn't exist for either of the other two questioned selection methods, deeper research is needed to better understand the voter's perceived benefits and concerns with merit selection or non-partisan election. (Methodology Note: Interviewers used random-digit dialing procedure to interview respondents. The numbers are generated by computer to achieve maximum representation in all West Virginia counties. This technique is designed to produce a sample of registered voters that is representative of the entire population in such areas as age, gender, race, and family income. Both listed and unlisted telephone households had an equal chance of being selected in the sample).

It is also important to note survey after survey conducted by our firm in West Virginia indicates the issue which evokes the greatest concern among West Virginia voters is the economy and/or job creation. Moreover, voters regularly express a perceived connection, to some extent, between the the judicial and economic systems or climates of the state. Because the economy is such an intensely concerning issue to voters and because of this perceived correlation between the economy and the judicial system, voters are likely to watch the commission's work with great interest and high expectations. For more information please feel free to visit http://www.markblankenship.com/ or email mark@markblankenship.com.

Welcome

Thank you for visiting the Public Opinion Research blog published by Mark Blankenship Enterprises, LLC. This blog will cover various research methodologies used to measure and analyze public opinion. We will discuss everything from traditional telephone surveys or polling to focus groups to online web surveys to jury and litigation research and much more. The primary objective of this blog will be to help you, the reader, better understand public opinion research generally, and which quantitative or qualitative research methodologies will best serve your communications needs. We will have a series of guest and expert writers who will contribute to this blog as well. From time to time we will also discuss current events and how such influence and shape public opinion and discuss actual research conducted by Mark Blankenship Enterprises. Relying on our more than 20 years of experience and expertise researching public opinion we hope to make this blog informative, educational and topical.

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